In the past 48 hours, the House of Commons of the British Parliament first passed the bill to prevent Prime Minister Johnson and Johnson from leaving the EU, and then vetoed Johnson & Johnson’s early election campaign. The following conditions may occur in the next few weeks. But it is difficult to predict at present.
● Continue to extend the period of Brexit
The House of Commons passed the bill and asked the government. If it fails to reach an agreement with the European Union before October 19, it must extend the Brexit period to January 31, 2020. The bill will be reviewed by the House of Lords, but the extension period will eventually remain. It is necessary for all EU leaders to pass without objection.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) believes that there is a precedent for the postponement of the Brexit period, so this is a possible situation; AFP reported that if the EU agrees to extend again, the British government will have to routinely report to the Congress Progress, and if there is still no way to negotiate an agreement with the European Union on January 31 next year, it will continue to be postponed, and Boris Johnson warned that it would be extended for several more years.
●Advance election is still possible
The United Kingdom holds a general election every five years, and the next time it should have been in 2022. To advance, the government can move in the House of Commons under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, requiring 2/3 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, or 434 seats. However, the re-election motion proposed by Johnson & Johnson was rejected in the House of Commons.
In theory, Johnson & Johnson has an option to achieve the goal of re-election, that is, to propose a short new law and specify the date of re-election, which can be achieved by simply obtaining a simple majority.
The other way is to vote for no trust in the government by Johnson or the opposition party. The threshold for this road is low – only 650 seats can be over half, but after the beginning of another lengthy procedure, still have to follow The “fixed term system of Congress” has come and gone, and there is no precedent.
The general procedure is that after the no-confidence case is passed, the leaders of the political parties have 14 days to set up a new government that can win half of the votes. The Conservative Party of Johnson & Johnson is the biggest party, and there is still a chance to set up a cabinet. The Party Labor Party also has the opportunity to find a small party group that supports the second referendum. But if no party can successfully form a cabinet in 14 days, Congress will have to disband and schedule the election.
If the election is advanced, Congress will be dissolved and the ongoing legislation will be suspended. The Labour Party, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Liberal Democrats do not agree to the early general elections. The Conservatives are also hesitant because of the early elections. This time, the Conservative Party voters will switch to the newly-elected Brexit Party. Conservative voters in some metropolitan areas will even vote for the anti-European political parties. Once defeated, Johnson & Johnson will be the shortest life in British history. prime minister.
●The best way is to have a contract to leave the European Union but the time limit is very fast.
The most hopeful script of the British government is naturally a parliamentary agreement with the European Union before October 31. However, the former Prime Minister Mey and the EU talked about the Brexit agreement has been rejected by the Congress three times. Johnson & Johnson hopes to re-talk with the EU and adjust the Irish border safeguard measures in the original agreement he opposed. The EU insists that border safeguard measures must be retained.
Johnson and Johnson put hope on the 17th to 18th of October, the last EU summit before the Brexit limit, and the fear of a non-agreement of Brexit will force the EU to make concessions and reach an agreement at the last minute. However, because Johnson & Johnson previously blocked the Brexit strategy against the Congress, he has successfully let the Congress adjourned from next week to October 14th, only about two weeks away from the Brexit deadline. The time course is very tight.